TD Cowen Raises Mondelez (MDLZ) Target While North America Volumes Remain Weak

Core Viewpoint - Mondelez International, Inc. is facing challenges in the current economic environment, with management's outlook for 2026 indicating lower-than-expected growth due to competitive pressures and consumer behavior shifts [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Outlook - TD Cowen raised its price target for Mondelez to $65 from $62 while maintaining a Buy rating, despite management's organic growth forecast for 2026 being below consensus at 0%-2% [2]. - Mondelez anticipates organic net revenue growth in 2026 to be flat to 2%, which is below the previously expected 3.84% increase [6]. - Adjusted profit growth is projected at 0%-5%, compared to analyst expectations of approximately 8.3% [6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Cocoa prices surged by about 160% in 2024 but have recently eased due to a global surplus; however, Mondelez has secured cocoa supply for 2026 at prices above current market levels, limiting pricing flexibility [4]. - The company is experiencing volume weakness in North America, with consumers shifting towards cheaper options and buying fewer items due to multiple price increases aimed at offsetting rising cocoa costs [3][5]. - CEO Dirk Van de Put highlighted that US consumer confidence is fragile, with higher-income customers moving towards healthier snack options, while European chocolate volumes are expected to stabilize after previous price hikes [5].