One Analyst Thinks Tesla's Robotaxi Revenue Could Soar to $250 Billion by 2035, But Here Are 2 Things Investors Need to Know

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is viewed as a battleground stock, but optimism is growing regarding its robotaxi fleet, with 2026 being highlighted as a potentially significant year for the company [1]. Group 1: Robotaxi Revenue Projections - Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner projects robotaxi revenue could reach $250 billion by 2035, assuming 30% penetration of autonomous vehicles and Tesla capturing 50% market share [2]. - This revenue projection supports an estimated equity value of $2.75 trillion, which translates to approximately $900 billion when discounted to present value, equating to $250 per share for the robotaxi unit [2]. Group 2: Near-Term Challenges - Rosner anticipates high costs associated with building the robotaxi fleet and Optimus humanoid robots, which may negatively impact Tesla's earnings in the short term [3]. - The company is expected to incur losses of $500 million from the robotaxi business as it scales its fleet from around 250 vehicles to 7,200 [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Tesla currently holds a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion, despite challenges in its core electric vehicle business and the expiration of U.S. incentives like the $7,500 federal tax credit [5]. - The stock trades at approximately 192 times forward earnings, indicating that the market has already priced in a level of success from the robotaxi initiative and potentially from Optimus [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Risks - Tesla's stock is assigned a premium due to CEO Elon Musk's strong following and the anticipated growth of the autonomous driving sector, with the company benefiting from a first-mover advantage [6]. - Potential risks include competition, challenges in scaling the robotaxi fleet, achieving fully unsupervised self-driving, and regulatory hurdles [7].