中国央行连续15个月增持黄金背后：外汇储备的变与不变

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, marking a 1.23% increase from the previous month, and maintaining stability above the $3.3 trillion mark for six consecutive months [3][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves to 74.19 million ounces, a rise of 40,000 ounces from December 2025, continuing a trend of growth for 15 months since November 2024 [4][8] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and rising global asset prices, reflecting a strategic adjustment in reserve composition [5][10] Data Foundation - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $339.91 billion, up by $4.12 billion from December 2025, indicating a stable upward trend [3][4] - The PBOC's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, with a consistent increase observed since November 2024, following an 18-month period of accumulation [4][6] Strategic Adjustments - The PBOC's gold accumulation strategy has been cautious, with monthly increases remaining below 100,000 ounces since March 2025, influenced by fluctuations in international gold prices [7][8] - The continuous increase in gold reserves signals China's intent to optimize its international reserve structure and enhance the proportion of "non-credit assets" [8][10] Global Context - The trend of increasing gold reserves is part of a broader global movement, with the World Gold Council reporting a 1% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching a record high of 5,002 tons in 2025 [9] - Analysts have differing views on future gold prices, with predictions ranging from $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 to potential downward pressure due to easing geopolitical risks [9] Strategic Implications - The stability of China's foreign exchange reserves, coupled with the increase in gold holdings, reflects a strategic response to global economic uncertainties and enhances the country's external buffer capacity [10] - The gradual increase in gold reserves, despite modest monthly increments, demonstrates a long-term strategy to build resilience against global volatility and underscores the growing importance of gold as a "non-credit asset" [10]