Why I'm Excited (and Cautious) for Tesla Stock in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focusing on Tesla's autonomous future, particularly its robotaxi expansion, despite current weak automotive revenue [1][3] Group 1: Robotaxi Expansion - Tesla is preparing to scale its robotaxi fleet in multiple cities this year, which could lead to a rise in stock prices [1][4] - The Cybercab, designed without a steering wheel or pedals, is set to enter production this year, indicating rapid scaling of the robotaxi service [4] - Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service in seven new cities in the first half of 2026, including Las Vegas and Miami [7] Group 2: Data and Demand - Tesla car owners are generating the equivalent of 500 years' worth of driving data daily, enhancing the full-self-driving (FSD) system [3] - The number of Tesla owners using FSD increased by 38% year over year in Q4, surpassing 1.1 million users [3] Group 3: Regulatory Hurdles - The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) currently limits annual sales of vehicles without steering wheels to 2,500 units, which could hinder Tesla's Cybercab production plans [5] - The NHTSA is considering modernizing these rules due to advancements in driverless technology, but until the cap is lifted, it may delay expansion [5] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Analysts project Tesla's earnings to grow at a 35% annualized rate over the next few years as higher margins from robotaxis begin to materialize [8]