关于加息和缩表的根本区别以及美国缩表的可能性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair, particularly focusing on the relationship between interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, challenging the conventional view that they are synonymous [3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Hikes vs. Balance Sheet Reduction - In a closed financial system, both balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes can lead to a decline in risk asset prices, which is often collectively referred to as "monetary tightening" [5]. - In an open economy, interest rate hikes can lead to capital inflows and increased liquidity preference, which may counteract the intended effects of tightening, potentially raising risk asset prices instead [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's prolonged high federal funds rate has coincided with new highs in the U.S. stock market, attributed to aggressive quantitative easing (QE) post-pandemic, despite ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) [10][16]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - For interest rate hikes to be effective, the Federal Reserve must maintain a stable balance sheet or quickly reduce it to counteract cross-border capital flows [11][14]. - The current global monetary landscape complicates coordinated actions among central banks, making cross-border capital flows a significant factor in monetary policy effectiveness [11][13]. - The lesson for macro policy makers is that managing the quantity of money supply is a prerequisite for effective price management; without controlling the quantity, raising interest rates becomes ineffective [16][20]. Group 3: Modern Financial System Dynamics - The evolution of modern financial instruments has altered the dynamics of money supply, leading to a new pricing formula for risk assets that incorporates a hedge asset coefficient [20][21]. - In the modern financial system, while the impact of balance sheet reduction is diminished, rapid balance sheet contraction can still signal the importance of cash, prompting a shift in investor behavior [21][23]. - The relationship between hedge assets and U.S. Treasury bonds is likened to a seesaw, where the perception of cash's value can shift based on the threat of balance sheet reduction [23][25]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that if there is no perceived threat of balance sheet reduction, the "cash is trash" mentality will prevail, leading to continued selling of U.S. Treasuries in favor of hedge assets [23][27]. - The potential for balance sheet reduction remains an attractive option for policymakers, particularly in the context of managing interest expenses and maximizing government debt capacity [29][30].