美银Hartnett：中期选举前“中盘股”胜率最高，科技巨头吸引力不再

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that U.S. small-cap stocks have become the best investment target ahead of the midterm elections, as the appeal of tech giants diminishes [1] - The strategy suggested by the team is to "go long Main Street and short Wall Street" until the Trump administration successfully adjusts policies to address affordability issues and boost approval ratings [1][4] - The report highlights structural challenges faced by tech giants, noting a shift from light-asset to heavy-asset business models, with an estimated $670 billion in AI capital expenditures this year, consuming 96% of their cash flow [1][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that the "Bull-Bear Indicator" has risen to 9.6, the highest level since March 2006, signaling an "extremely bullish" market and triggering a sell signal [1][8] - The report warns that the transition to a heavy-asset model poses a significant threat to the market leadership of the so-called "seven giants" of the tech sector [7] - The market is showing signs of rotation from U.S. stocks to international equities, with emerging market stocks up 7% this year, and a broader increase of 5% in global markets outside the U.S. [8]