沃什获美联储主席提名：加息缩表逻辑有别 每万亿缩表等效50基点降息 2.9万亿准备金掣肘美国缩表

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has intensified discussions around "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," highlighting a cognitive bias among investors who equate rate hikes with balance sheet reduction as monetary tightening [1] - In a closed traditional financial system, both balance sheet reduction and rate hikes can lead to declines in risk asset prices, but they operate on different dimensions of risk asset pricing formulas [1] - In an open economy framework, the effects of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction diverge, as rate hikes can attract cross-border capital inflows, potentially leading to an expansion of the domestic balance sheet and counteracting the tightening effects of rate hikes [1] Group 2 - The development of modern financial instruments has enhanced the substitutability of safe-haven assets like gold and BTC for cash, diminishing the effectiveness of rate hike policies [2] - Current market conditions show that while slow balance sheet reduction has a tangible effect, rapid balance sheet reduction could re-establish the value of cash and significantly impact the market [2] - Warsh suggests that reducing the balance sheet by approximately $1 trillion could equate to a 50 basis point rate cut, but practical constraints exist, such as the current reserve balance of about $2.9 trillion, which is on the edge of adequacy [2] Group 3 - SMBC indicates that further balance sheet reduction could threaten financial stability, making substantial reductions operationally unfeasible [3] - Goldman Sachs believes that despite Warsh's intentions to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, there is broad support within the Fed for maintaining an adequate reserve framework, making aggressive balance sheet reduction unlikely [3]