ArcBest Corporation (ARCB): A Bull Case Theory

Company Overview - ArcBest Corporation is a century-old, multi-segment logistics operator with a unionized less-than-truckload (LTL) network and an asset-light brokerage and managed transportation business [2] - The company operates 239 service centers across North America, employing approximately 15,000 individuals, with about 56% represented by the Teamsters [2] Financial Performance - For 2024, ArcBest's projected revenue is $4.53 billion, with the asset-based LTL segment contributing $3.33 billion (74% of total revenue) and the asset-light logistics segment contributing $1.20 billion [3] - The EBITDA margin for the LTL segment is 10.2%, while the asset-light logistics segment has a margin of 3-4% [3] - The company has a collective bargaining agreement that ensures predictable 4.2% annual labor cost escalations through mid-2028 [3] Market Dynamics - The North American LTL market is valued at $85 billion, with the top 10 carriers controlling 75% of the revenue [4] - The liquidation of Yellow in 2023 removed approximately 9-10% of national capacity, benefiting ArcBest by redistributing assets to more rational operators and improving rate discipline [4] Industry Outlook - Despite a freight recession expected from 2023 to 2025, industry pricing has remained rational, and a modest rebound in manufacturing could quickly normalize volumes [5] - ArcBest's higher-cost structure due to unionization provides significant operating leverage, with potential for dramatic earnings increases if tonnage or oversized freight mix recovers [5] Investment Thesis - ArcBest's shares are trading near their liquidation value of $50-$84 per share, based on terminal, fleet, and brokerage assets, presenting an asymmetric upside opportunity [6] - A mid-cycle recovery could drive 2028 EPS to $10-12, while normalization in shipment weights could push EPS to $18-20, indicating a potential 2-3x upside [6] - Key catalysts for growth include industrial recovery, tonnage normalization, terminal monetization, and potential mergers and acquisitions [6]