百胜中国(9987.HK)2025Q4业绩点评：同店增长环比提速 多元门店形态贡献增量

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion in Q4 2025, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, with an operating profit of $187 million (+25%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $140 million (+24%) [1] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of $11.797 billion (+4%), operating profit of $1.290 billion (+11%), and net profit of $929 million (+2%) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company returned $539 million to shareholders, totaling $1.5 billion for the year, with plans to maintain the same level of shareholder returns in 2026 [1] - Same-store sales growth was recorded for three consecutive quarters, with a Q4 increase of 7% in system sales and 3% in same-store sales, alongside a net addition of 587 stores [1] - For the full year, system sales and same-store sales increased by 4% and 1%, respectively, with a net addition of 1,706 stores, of which 31% were franchise stores [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - KFC's Q4 system sales and same-store sales grew by 8% and 3%, respectively, with a net addition of 357 stores [1] - Pizza Hut's Q4 system sales and same-store sales increased by 6% and 1%, respectively, with a net addition of 146 stores [1] - The company is expanding its KPRO and KFC Coffee brands, with KPRO expected to double its store count to over 400 by 2026 [2] Group 3: Cost Management - The company improved its operating profit margin to 6.6% and restaurant profit margin to 13.0% in Q4 2025, benefiting from streamlined operations and favorable raw material prices [3] - KFC's operating profit margin was 10.5%, while Pizza Hut's was 3.7%, reflecting improvements in both brands [3] - The proportion of food and packaging costs decreased by 0.3 percentage points, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points, and rental and other expenses decreased by 1.6 percentage points [3] Group 4: Future Projections - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting revenues of $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion, respectively [3] - Net profits are projected to be $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion for the same period, with corresponding EPS of $2.87, $3.18, and $3.46 [3] - The latest stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the company [3]