龙佰集团(002601)：外需有望推动景气复苏 公司强化全产业

Group 1 - The demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in emerging markets is expected to drive a recovery in the industry, despite low market expectations due to concerns over domestic demand being affected by macroeconomic factors [1] - China's titanium dioxide production capacity accounts for over 50% of the global total, and the country has been increasing its influence in the global market as traditional producers in Europe and the US face operational pressures [1] - The rigid growth in demand from emerging countries and the irreplaceability of Chinese production capacity are anticipated to lead to opportunities for leading companies in the titanium dioxide sector [1] Group 2 - The company has a current titanium dioxide production capacity of 1.51 million tons, making it the largest producer globally, with significant advantages in technology and industry chain [2] - The company plans to establish subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK by October 2025 and intends to acquire Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets, which include a chlorinated titanium production facility with a design capacity of 150,000 tons [2] - The company is also advancing two core projects to enhance its titanium concentrate self-sufficiency, aiming to increase its titanium concentrate capacity to 2.48 million tons [2] Group 3 - Due to rising raw material prices and declining titanium dioxide prices, the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.847 billion, 2.825 billion, and 3.320 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price for the company is set at 23.80 yuan, maintaining a buy rating based on a 20x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [2]