国信证券：资产走势趋同的终局思维

Core Viewpoint - In 2023, global asset correlation has surged again, driven by the end of the Kondratiev wave depression, geopolitical risks, and the AI narrative, leading to a strong "tech stocks + precious metals" combination, while the synchronization of the US and China monetary cycles increases the difficulty of risk diversification [1] Group 1: Global Asset Correlation - The correlation of global major assets has reached a new high in 2023, measured by the correlation of similar assets priced in China and overseas [1] - The logic behind the resonance of global major assets includes the end of the Kondratiev wave depression, the Ukraine crisis, global trade frictions, and the AI wave driving a dual combination of "tech stocks + precious metals" [1] - The correlation between commodities and stocks has also reached a new high, while the monetary cycles of the US and China are transitioning from divergence to synchronization [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In the past 20 years, global major assets have only reached similar high correlation levels twice: in mid-2013 and in the first quarter of 2020 [2] - The high correlation in mid-2013 was due to the taper tantrum, where the 10-year US Treasury yield rose sharply from 1.63% to around 3.0%, leading to a rare synchronous decline in gold, US Treasuries, and emerging market stocks and bonds [2] - The first quarter of 2020 saw extreme risk aversion and a dollar liquidity crisis, characterized by a spike in the VIX index to 85.47, with all assets forced to act as liquidity instruments [3]