菜百股份(605599)：全年业绩超预期 投资金需求大幅释放

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant increase in customer traffic and sales during the New Year period, with a total of 1.0246 million visitors and sales reaching 351 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 80.24% and 95.28% respectively, setting a historical record for the same period [1] - The company has announced an expected annual profit for 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07%, and a non-net profit of 950 million to 1.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.16% to 64.03% [1] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 413 to 583 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 150% to 253%, and a non-net profit of 365 to 535 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 130% to 236% [1] Group 2 - The company is benefiting from a favorable tax reform and rising investment demand in Beijing, with retail sales of gold and jewelry in the city increasing by 39.5% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the national average of 12.8% [1] - The launch of the new year gold bars has led to long queues at the store, with heavy-weight investment gold bars and traditional gold bracelets becoming the main sales drivers, indicating consumer behavior of buying more as gold prices rise [2] - The company is optimistic about its performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the release of investment demand driven by rising gold prices, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.14, 1.37, and 1.39 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.1, 15.9, and 15.7 times, and an upgrade to a "buy" rating [2]