有色巨震后，错杀机会凸显？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental supply-demand balance remains intact, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [4][6][17]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector index has experienced a decline of 15% over the past seven trading days following a peak [2]. External Factors Influencing Market - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the negative gamma effect amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [6][10]. Triggering Events - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a restructuring of policy expectations, causing a significant impact on precious metals, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in policy expectations has prompted speculative funds to liquidate positions in precious metals, leading to a broader decline across the non-ferrous sector due to a loss of risk appetite [8][11]. Amplifying Mechanisms - The negative gamma effect, combined with high leverage, has triggered a cycle of selling as prices fall below critical support levels, resulting in a cascading effect of forced liquidations [9][10]. Seasonal Influences - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival have added pressure to the market, with a typical slowdown in demand and a conservative approach from investors leading to further declines in the non-ferrous sector [10][11]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain unchanged, with several sub-sectors showing signs of being oversold [12][13]. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The long-term investment rationale for precious metals remains strong, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for non-ferrous metals like copper and zinc, which continue to exhibit tight supply-demand conditions [13][14]. Specific Metal Insights - The supply constraints for tungsten, antimony, and uranium are expected to provide upward price elasticity, with production controls and increasing demand from nuclear energy contributing to a favorable outlook [14][15]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-driven volatility presents a rational entry point for long-term investments in the non-ferrous metal sector, as the fundamental supply-demand balance is likely to persist amid ongoing global energy transitions and geopolitical shifts [17][18].