锂业开年抢矿大战：巨头死磕“确定性”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is witnessing a series of strategic capital operations by major players to secure resource control amid fluctuating lithium prices and geopolitical risks, indicating a shift towards prioritizing resource certainty for future profitability [2][3][10]. Group 1: Capital Operations and Financing - Tianqi Lithium announced a fundraising and asset disposal plan on February 4, 2026, aiming to raise HKD 58.6 billion (approximately RMB 5.2 billion) through a combination of H-share placement and convertible bonds, alongside the potential disposal of shares in SQM and Zhongxin Innovation, which could yield around RMB 1.9 billion, totaling approximately RMB 7.1 billion [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley's report highlighted that after completing the fundraising, Tianqi Lithium's potential for subsequent mergers and acquisitions would significantly increase, although it also warned of a potential dilution risk exceeding 6% [2][3]. - The capital raised by Tianqi Lithium is intended for project development, optimizing capital expenditures, and acquiring quality lithium assets, particularly during a low point in the industry cycle [5][12]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - On February 4, 2026, Shengxin Lithium announced the completion of a RMB 1.26 billion acquisition of the remaining stake in Huirong Mining, fully integrating the Sichuan Muro Lithium Mine into its portfolio, which is recognized as one of Asia's largest hard rock lithium deposits [7][8]. - Salt Lake Co. announced on December 30, 2025, its acquisition of a 51% stake in Wenkou Salt Lake for RMB 4.605 billion, enhancing its control over lithium resources and positioning itself among the top domestic lithium salt producers [3][7]. - Shengxin Lithium and Zhongxin Innovation signed a framework agreement for deep cooperation, committing to the procurement of 200,000 tons of lithium salt products from Shengxin Lithium between 2026 and 2030, indicating a strategic alignment in the supply chain [3][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Logic - The current actions of lithium industry leaders reflect a proactive approach to securing resources, as they aim to mitigate uncertainties associated with price fluctuations and geopolitical risks by locking in resource supply [3][10][14]. - The pursuit of high-quality, low-cost lithium resources is seen as essential for maintaining stability during market downturns and capitalizing during peaks, as highlighted by Tianqi Lithium's operational strategies [11][12]. - The overarching strategy among these companies is to convert the uncertainties of resource acquisition into tangible, controllable assets through capital investments, thereby ensuring future profitability [10][14].