浙商固收：本次春节假期前后资金面的关注点

Group 1 - The central bank began to inject 14-day reverse repos starting February 5, aligning with expectations for the amount and timing across the Spring Festival holiday [1][3] - The current low deposit certificate and credit spreads reflect a market expectation of stable and loose liquidity, with remaining arbitrage opportunities [1][3] - The Spring Festival holiday's impact on interbank liquidity is primarily driven by changes in M0, with cash withdrawals for "red envelopes" still prevalent despite digital payment methods [1][2] Group 2 - The cash leakage due to residents' withdrawals during the Spring Festival is expected to exceed 1.7 trillion, compounded by a funding gap of over 2.2 trillion before the holiday [2] - The central bank's balance sheet measures M0 changes, which may show smaller increases if the holiday falls mid-month due to cash returning to banks later [2] - The 2026 Spring Festival, lasting 9 days, is anticipated to cause significant cash leakage and delayed cash return to banks, similar to trends observed in previous years [1][4] Group 3 - The central bank's reverse repo operations are expected to total 2.4 trillion if maintained at 300 billion daily from February 9 to February 14, matching the anticipated funding gap [3] - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the potential appreciation of the RMB during the holiday [4] - The 2023 Spring Festival saw a significant increase in residents returning home and delayed work resumption, leading to a tightening of liquidity post-holiday [4]