Eli Lilly Shares Surge on Weight-Loss Drug Momentum. Is It Time to Buy the Stock?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's share price increased over 30% in the past year following strong sales of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and positive guidance for 2026 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Sales of Mounjaro surged 110% to $7.4 billion in Q4, while Zepbound revenue increased 123% from $1.9 billion a year ago to $4.3 billion [2] - Overall Q4 revenue grew by 43% to $19.29 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 42% to $7.54, exceeding analyst expectations [4] Group 2: Future Guidance - The company projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a 25% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EPS forecasted to range from $33.50 to $35 [5] - Projections for 2026 are significantly above consensus estimates, which anticipated EPS of $33.23 on sales of $77.72 billion [5] Group 3: Product Outlook - Continued strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound is expected, potentially enhanced by Medicare coverage later this year [6] - The anticipated approval of orforglipron for obesity in Q2 presents a significant opportunity, as it is an oral medication rather than an injectable, which may attract a larger market [7]