Is Rigetti Stock (RGTI) a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock has significantly declined, trading over 60% below its 2025 high and losing all gains made in 2026, raising questions about whether it is a good time to invest in this quantum computing start-up [1][2]. Industry Overview - The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages, with start-ups like Rigetti competing against established tech giants such as Google and IBM to develop commercially viable quantum technologies [2]. - Companies in this sector are focused on optimizing their quantum computers based on three key metrics: speed, accuracy, and scale [4]. Performance Metrics - Speed is defined as the time taken for a quantum system to manipulate a quantum particle at a "quantum gate" [4]. - Accuracy is measured by "two-qubit gate fidelity," indicating the percentage of error-free computations [5]. - Scale refers to the number of physical qubits in a quantum system, with a noted challenge that increasing speed and scale often leads to decreased accuracy [5]. Rigetti's Position - Rigetti's 108-qubit system claims gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds, which is considered very fast [7]. - The median accuracy of this system is 99% for two-qubit gate fidelity, which, while seemingly high, is not competitive with rivals like IonQ, which has achieved 99.99% fidelity in a 100-qubit system [8][9]. - Rigetti's smaller systems show better accuracy, with a 36-qubit system achieving 99.6% fidelity and a 9-qubit system reaching 99.7% [9]. Future Projections - Rigetti aims to develop a system with 1,000 qubits by 2027, targeting a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.7% [13]. - In comparison, IonQ is targeting a 10,000-qubit system by 2027 and a 2 million-qubit system by 2030 [13]. - For quantum computers to be commercially viable, estimates suggest they need at least 1 million physical qubits and a fidelity of 99.99% or higher [12]. Market Potential - The quantum computing market could reach as much as $72 billion by 2030, presenting significant opportunities for companies like Rigetti if they can capture a substantial market share [17].