【展望二〇二六】推动全球经济在调整中前行

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is at a critical crossroads as it enters 2026, facing long-term low growth risks despite resilience shown in 2025 against U.S. tariff increases. Investment stagnation and limited fiscal space remain significant issues, with a complex interplay of resilience, risks, and restructuring expected throughout 2026 [1]. Economic Growth and Manufacturing - In 2025, the global economy maintained growth despite significant U.S. tariff hikes, supported by stable consumer spending and declining inflation. However, the manufacturing sector showed weak recovery, with the global manufacturing PMI averaging 49.6%, indicating a slight improvement from 2024 [2]. - Regional disparities in manufacturing performance were evident, with Asia and Africa showing PMIs above 51% and 50%, respectively, while Europe and the Americas remained below 50%, particularly the Americas at below 48% [2]. Inflation and Trade - Global inflation eased to approximately 3.4% in 2025, down from peaks between 2021 and 2023, providing central banks with more policy space, although living costs continue to rise, affecting low-income groups [3]. - Global trade grew by 3.8% in 2025 despite adverse policy environments, driven by "front-loading" behaviors due to anticipated tariff increases. However, this trend may pressure trade growth in 2026 [3]. Debt and Economic Forecasts - Global debt reached $345.7 trillion by September 2025, 3.1 times the global GDP, with developed markets' debt hitting a historical peak of $230.6 trillion, raising systemic risk concerns [3]. - Major international economic institutions predict a slowdown in global economic growth for 2026, with the IMF forecasting a growth rate of 3.3% and the UN projecting 2.7%, both lower than 2025 estimates [4]. Emerging Markets and Regional Growth - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to remain key growth drivers, with a growth rate of 4.2% in 2025 and projections of over 4.0% for 2026-2027 [5]. - The Asian economy is anticipated to continue driving global recovery, with growth rates of 4.4% in East Asia and 5.6% in South Asia for 2026 [6]. Trade Growth and Protectionism - Global trade growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2026, with the WTO predicting a more pessimistic 0.5% growth, indicating a potential stagnation in trade dynamics [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant downside risk for the global economy in 2026, with trade tensions likely to persist [7]. Geopolitical Risks and Debt Concerns - Geopolitical tensions and protectionism are major risks for 2026, with the U.S. tariff policies impacting global trade norms and creating uncertainty [7]. - The debt situation in developed countries remains precarious, with the U.S. federal debt nearing $39 trillion, while developing countries face significant debt repayment challenges [8]. Technological Advancements - The AI revolution is accelerating its penetration into the real economy, with predictions that AI will contribute approximately 0.5% to global economic growth annually from 2025 to 2030 [9]. - Investment in digital transformation is becoming a new engine for global investment, despite a decline in foreign direct investment overall [9]. Regional Economic Integration - Regional economic integration is advancing, with agreements like RCEP enhancing trade facilitation and industrial chain integration, creating new opportunities for global economic growth [10]. Global Economic Landscape - The global economic landscape in 2026 will be shaped by various factors, including China's focus on domestic demand and innovation, U.S. tariff policies, and the structural opportunities presented by AI and green industries [11].