中泰证券：银行板块业绩增速稳中向好 建议关注有成长性且估值低的城农商行

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak cycle" phase, with a focus on the stability and sustainability of the sector. It is recommended to pay attention to city and rural commercial banks that have growth potential and low valuations [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - Among eleven banks, eight reported a rebound in revenue growth, eight in profit growth, six saw a decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, and seven experienced an increase in provisions [2][3] - The performance of joint-stock banks is recovering, while city commercial banks maintain high growth rates [2][3] - Loan growth has slightly declined due to quarterly factors, but some banks like Pudong Development Bank and Xiamen Bank have shown a counter-trend recovery [3] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue growth for major joint-stock banks is improving, with city commercial banks continuing to show high growth; for instance, Nanjing Bank's revenue growth has returned to double digits [3] - The recovery in revenue is driving a rebound in net profit for joint-stock banks, with city commercial banks maintaining high growth, particularly notable improvements from Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank [3] Group 3: Asset Quality - The trend of asset quality is stable, with a decrease or stability in NPL ratios for most banks; Qingdao Bank saw the largest decline in NPL ratio, down 13 basis points [3] - Provisions have increased for several banks, including Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank, with increases of 22.3 and 8.2 percentage points respectively [3] Group 4: Interest and Non-Interest Income - Net interest income is expected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year for 2025, with a continued narrowing of the decline [4] - Fee income is recovering, with a projected growth of approximately 6.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, supported by wealth management business [4] - Other non-interest income is under pressure, but is expected to show a slight increase of 4.2% year-on-year in Q4 2025, mainly supported by diversified income from large banks [4] Group 5: Future Projections - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with retail exposure continuing but the extent of exposure anticipated to narrow [5] - Revenue and profit are projected to stabilize, with an estimated revenue growth of 1.2% year-on-year in Q4 2025, and net profit expected to increase by around 1.6% [5]