明明之前已经加强了管制，为什么中国突然又对日本稀土出口放行？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has implemented stricter export controls on dual-use items to Japan, effective immediately, which has raised concerns in Japan's industrial sector due to its heavy reliance on Chinese rare earth imports [1][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The new export control measures focus on the "end use" of products rather than just the product category, prohibiting exports to military-related users or any items deemed to enhance Japan's military capabilities [3]. - Japan relies on China for over 70% of its rare earth resources, with a near 100% dependency on heavy rare earth elements essential for electric vehicle motor production [3][5]. - A study estimates that a long-term disruption in China's supply of key minerals could lead to a more than 17% drop in Japan's automotive industry output [3]. Group 2: Approval of Export Applications - Reports indicate that the approved rare earth export applications were likely submitted before the new regulations took effect, suggesting that the approvals are part of the normal processing of backlog applications [5][7]. - The Chinese government has emphasized that the export controls are "precise" and that compliant applications for civilian use will be approved [5][8]. Group 3: International Context and Reactions - The timing of the approval coincided with Japan's announcement of successful rare earth extraction from the ocean floor, which was intended to alleviate domestic industry concerns and project resource independence [10][12]. - China's response to Japan's announcement was understated, indicating a lack of concern over Japan's claims of breaking China's rare earth monopoly [14]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Pricing - Despite the approval of some export applications, the global rare earth market continues to experience supply tightness and high prices, with Standard & Poor's predicting ongoing supply chain bottlenecks through 2026 [17]. - China controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and processing capacity, giving it a significant advantage in the market [17][19]. - The recent export control measures may lead to a bifurcation in rare earth pricing, with a significant price disparity between the "China market" and "non-China market" due to supply scarcity [19][21]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The tightening and subsequent easing of export controls reflect China's strategy to delineate clear boundaries for Japan while maintaining its role as a key player in the global supply chain [21][23]. - Japan's long-term reliance on Chinese rare earths poses challenges, as alternative sources are not readily available, highlighting the complexities of resource independence [23][24].