日本执政联盟赢得众议院选举过半议席，日元日债面临压力

Core Insights - The ruling coalition in Japan, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, has secured a majority in the recent House of Representatives election, leading to strong market expectations for fiscal stimulus and a bullish sentiment in the stock market [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index futures rose approximately 3% in early trading, reflecting investor optimism regarding increased government spending, particularly in defense and technology sectors [1][2] - However, the yen and Japanese government bonds are under pressure, with the yen weakening to around 157.61 against the dollar, nearing the intervention threshold of 160 [1][4] Market Reactions - The election results have triggered a "risk-on" sentiment in financial markets, with the Nikkei index continuing its strong performance this year, up over 8%, significantly outperforming developed market indices [2] - Analysts suggest that "Takaichi trades" may dominate the market, focusing on sectors aligned with the government's investment agenda, such as defense and nuclear energy [2] Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - The yen's depreciation is expected to continue, with market participants anticipating potential official intervention due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [4] - Japanese government bonds face selling pressure, exacerbated by liquidity issues and concerns regarding the sustainability of government finances, leading global fund managers to reduce their exposure to Japanese bonds prior to the election [4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - Despite fiscal concerns, there has been a slight improvement in bond performance, easing upward pressure on yields [7] - Market focus is shifting towards the Bank of Japan's policy direction, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [7]