Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-09 01:12Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with a 70% probability of rising in the first five trading days post-holiday, and a projected increase of 4.85% in 2024 [1][2]. Market Trends - Historical data shows that the market typically rebounds in the five trading days leading up to the Spring Festival, with a notable upward trend continuing until around T+6 days post-holiday [2]. - The trading volume is characterized by a "decrease before the holiday and an increase after" [1]. Institutional Recommendations - Major brokerage firms recommend "holding stocks over the holiday," anticipating a resurgence in market activity post-Spring Festival [1][3][4]. - Economic and profit expectations are likely to improve during the holiday, with positive consumer data anticipated [5]. Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Liquidity is expected to remain loose during the Spring Festival, with potential for accelerated capital inflow post-holiday [5]. - Market sentiment is projected to be neutral, with limited external risks impacting domestic markets [5]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology growth and cyclical industries, which are expected to outperform due to policy support and ongoing industry trends [5][6]. - Specific attention is recommended for AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment sectors [6]. Style Rotation - There is a notable style rotation expected, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks before the holiday, while small-cap stocks are anticipated to lead post-holiday [7]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more defensive strategy, gradually moving towards growth sectors [8].