Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-09 01:12Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) rose by 2.00%, with key stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng up 6.18%, Hengyi Petrochemical up 5.01%, and Rongsheng Petrochemical up 4.93% [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 1.82%, with a latest price of 1.0 yuan and a turnover rate of 10.86% during the trading session [1] - The Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 1.447 billion yuan in inflows over the past 20 trading days [1] Key News - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices fluctuate upwards, closing above the moving average. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, PetroChina and BP purchased three ships of 20,000 tons each of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil from Sinopec, Shell, and Canon for loading between February 19-23 [2] - The PVC main contract fell by 2.18%, with spot prices decreasing by 40-50 yuan/ton. The price trend and inventory depletion speed depend on the recovery of demand post-Spring Festival. If downstream projects like infrastructure can effectively start, inventory pressure may gradually ease [2] - As of the end of January 2026, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.2064 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45% and a year-on-year increase of 60.54% [2] Global Refining Activity - As of the week ending February 6, global refinery shutdowns totaled approximately 5.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 880,000 barrels per day from the previous week, primarily driven by the resumption of activities in Asia [3] - Future global refinery shutdowns are expected to slightly decrease to just above 5 million barrels per day, largely dependent on the restart timing of the Dangote refinery, a key uncertainty in Africa [3] Geopolitical Focus - The situation in Iran is under market scrutiny, with plans for continued negotiations and a significant decrease in the probability of U.S. actions against Iran, leaving Iranian oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz unaffected [3] - The Russia-Ukraine situation shows no significant progress in ceasefire agreements, with ongoing negotiations under pressure from sanctions and reduced Indian purchases affecting Russia's financial position [3] Institutional Insights - CICC believes that the next expected turning point in the oil market may be the production peak of U.S. shale oil, with potential for substantial improvement in market oversupply in the second half of the year, which could provide marginal cost guidance and upward price movement opportunities [4] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) track the China Petroleum Industry Index, focusing on "big energy" security logic. They not only share profits from downstream chemical products but also secure upstream resource value through high allocations to leading refining companies, demonstrating stronger performance resilience during oil price upcycles [5]