沃什力挺，影响深远！时隔75年，美联储又要和美国财政部达成协议了？

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has sparked significant interest on Wall Street regarding his proposal for a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, aimed at reshaping their relationship, potentially impacting the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and fundamentally altering the Fed's balance sheet management [1][2]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement - Waller has called for a new version of the "1951 Agreement" to reform the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which historically limited the Fed's footprint in the bond market and established its autonomy in monetary policy [2]. - The proposed agreement would clearly define the size of the Fed's balance sheet and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plans, addressing concerns raised during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the Fed's extensive asset purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Treasury's Position - Treasury Secretary Yellen shares Waller's skepticism towards prolonged quantitative easing (QE), advocating for its use only in genuine emergencies and with coordination among government departments [3]. - A streamlined new agreement may stipulate that the Fed can only conduct large-scale Treasury purchases with Treasury approval, aiming to halt QE as market conditions allow [3]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - There is an expectation that a more substantive agreement could lead to a significant shift in the Fed's asset holdings, moving from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [4]. - This shift would enable the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds or at least avoid significant increases in issuance [4][5]. Group 4: Market Risks and Concerns - While enhanced coordination may aim to lower borrowing costs for U.S. borrowers, any fundamental changes carry risks, including concerns about the Fed's independence and its potential alignment with fiscal policy [6]. - Analysts warn that a public agreement linking the Fed's balance sheet to Treasury financing could undermine the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate, leading to increased volatility and diminished attractiveness of U.S. assets [6]. Group 5: Skepticism on Formal Agreement - Some experts express skepticism about the likelihood of a formal agreement, suggesting that while cooperation may increase, it could also reduce the chances of a formalized arrangement [7]. - There are proposals for the Fed to exchange its $2 trillion mortgage-backed securities portfolio for Treasury bills, aimed at lowering mortgage rates, but this faces significant obstacles [7].