东吴证券：光互联市场空间有望维持高速扩张 重点布局配置三条核心主线

Core Insights - The future of optical interconnection is driven by diverse network connection scenarios such as Scale-out, Scale-up, and Scale-across, indicating a high-speed expansion of the overall market space [1] - Various technical solutions have independent market expansion foundations, presenting long-term and sustainable development opportunities [1] - The report suggests focusing on three core lines: large optics, small optics, and new optics, based on market cycles and industry evolution stages [1] Group 1: Demand for Optical Modules - Confidence in future demand for optical modules is increasing, with major cloud service providers (CSPs) like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta disclosing a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion by 2026, a significant 60% year-on-year increase, primarily directed towards AI computing power [1] - The sustained increase in capital investment by major CSPs in AI-related infrastructure will prioritize network connectivity, crucial for computing clusters [1] - The demand for optical modules will remain strong due to the ongoing release of GPU/TPU/ASIC chips and the rapid iteration of next-generation chips, establishing a solid demand foundation for 2027 [1] Group 2: CPO Industry Progress - Lumentum has announced additional orders worth hundreds of millions of dollars for ultra-high power lasers in the CPO field, with substantial deliveries expected in the second half of 2026 and Scale-up CPO products anticipated by the end of 2027 [2] - NVIDIA has revealed that partners CoreWeave, Lambda, and TACC will deploy IBCPO systems in the first half of 2026, with Ethernet CPO products set to ship in the second half of 2026 [2] - The CPO industry is progressing faster than previously expected, with significant advancements anticipated throughout the year, suggesting a growing market space [2] Group 3: NPO's Unique Advantages - Tencent has released specifications for its NPO technology, which centralizes the optical engine deployment near device chips, enabling single-layer Scale-up networking and supporting DSP-free designs [3] - NPO offers greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness, making it a favored choice among CSP customers and potentially a long-term technical option [3] - The NPO technology can reduce costs and power consumption through high-density interconnections while maintaining higher decoupling in the supply chain, enhancing the growth potential and performance of related industry players [3]