SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-09 01:22Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the weakening of the post-World War II rules-based international order, with countries prioritizing strategic autonomy and security, leading to increased resilience investments in energy, food, and critical minerals [2][36]. Group 1: Strategic Autonomy and Security - Countries are increasingly focusing on strategic autonomy and security in response to the risks exposed by extreme globalization, as highlighted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney [2][37]. - The need for strategic reserves at both national and industry levels is clear, aiming to secure the foundations of modern industry and defense [3][37]. Group 2: Historical Insights from the Cold War - Historical analysis shows that national security strategies can drive demand for strategic metals, leading to significant price increases beyond typical industry cycles [5][40]. - The geopolitical tensions of the 1970s, particularly the U.S.-Soviet rivalry, created a context where strategic metals experienced dramatic price surges due to increased demand for national defense [8][40]. Group 3: Geopolitical Supply Risks - The U.S. and Soviet Union's competition led to the weaponization of supply chains, with both sides imposing export bans on critical minerals, creating supply shortages and price volatility [9][44]. - The price of strategic metals saw exponential increases during the late 1970s to early 1980s, driven by geopolitical risks and national security concerns [10][45]. Group 4: Current Geopolitical Landscape - Major economies are now issuing "critical mineral lists" to address supply chain vulnerabilities, with the U.S. expanding its list to 60 minerals by 2025 [11][46]. - The concentration of mineral production in a few countries, such as China and Russia, heightens supply chain risks, as these nations dominate the production of many critical minerals [13][48]. Group 5: Demand for Critical Minerals - Key minerals like aluminum, graphite, cobalt, tungsten, and titanium are essential for national defense industries, with specific applications in military equipment and technology [21][56]. - The strategic importance of these minerals is underscored by their critical roles in various defense applications, from ammunition to aerospace components [22][57]. Group 6: Implications for Commodity Pricing - The current geopolitical climate is leading to a rise in "security premiums" for commodities, as countries prioritize securing their supply chains for energy, food, and critical minerals [29][64]. - The historical volatility of strategic metal prices during the Cold War serves as a reminder that national security-driven demand can significantly influence commodity markets [29][64].