Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-09 01:27Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of HKD 26.5, implying an 8% upside potential and corresponding dividend yields of 4.3% and 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The performance of high-end shopping centers in mainland China is outstanding, with retail sales in Shanghai's Xinyi Swire and Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li expected to grow by 49.6% and 11.2% year-on-year in 2025, respectively [2] - Other projects such as Shanghai's Front Beach Taikoo Li, Chengdu Taikoo Li, and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui also recorded year-on-year retail sales growth of 6.9%, 6.5%, and 1.6%, with fourth-quarter performance improving compared to the first three quarters [2] - New projects are on track, with the first phase of Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li launched by the end of 2025, and other projects in Sanya, Shanghai, and Lujiazui expected to be completed starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Office Market - The overall occupancy rate of the company's Hong Kong office buildings is 91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, while the core area of Taikoo Place saw an increase of 1 percentage point to 96% [3] - The rental rate for office buildings is expected to decline by 13-15% in 2025 due to competitive market conditions, with the company adopting flexible leasing strategies to prioritize occupancy and tenant retention [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong's high-end shopping center Taikoo Place and mass-market center Taikoo City Center are expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, outperforming the overall Hong Kong retail sector, which is projected to grow by 1.0% [4] - The growth is attributed to the recovery of luxury brand sales from a low base and the company's ongoing tenant adjustments and marketing activities to attract diverse customer traffic [4]