换手率同类居首！有色金属ETF天弘(159157)上市首日成交额近3亿元位居深市同标的第一

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) has shown strong market activity, leading in turnover and trading volume among similar products, indicating a robust interest in the nonferrous metals sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) had a turnover rate of 28.68% and a trading volume of 291 million yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1]. - The ETF experienced a net subscription of 285 million shares on its first day of listing, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Index and Sector Highlights - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which has a notable allocation of over 10% to the rare earth sector, making it the third-largest industry in the index [3]. - The top two industries in the index are copper and aluminum, with expectations of limited supply growth in the coming years, suggesting potential for long-term price increases [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Mergers - Nonferrous metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are currently maintaining high levels, with a surge in mergers and acquisitions among international mining companies, particularly involving Chinese firms [4]. - Since the second half of 2025, Chinese mining companies have acquired nearly 60 billion yuan worth of overseas gold mines, indicating a clear trend of Chinese firms securing quality nonferrous resources globally [4]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME aluminum prices for the first half of 2026 from $2,575 per ton to $3,150 per ton, indicating a potential revaluation of aluminum prices [5]. - CICC has noted that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum will continue to widen in 2026, with supportive fiscal and monetary policies likely driving aluminum prices to new highs [5]. - Galaxy Securities highlights the importance of building a domestic copper resource reserve system to enhance supply chain resilience, predicting an expansion of the global copper supply gap and upward pressure on copper prices due to "security premiums" [5].