成交额超26亿元，国债ETF5至10年(511020)历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%

Group 1 - Institutions remain bullish on long-term bonds, driven by allocation despite net selling by brokers and funds of over 108.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bonds (maturity over 20 years) from January 1 to February 6, compared to a net sell of only 5.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Insurance funds net purchased 120.6 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds, while city and rural commercial banks net bought 50 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 55.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan year-on-year respectively [1] - The steepening yield curve and declining funding costs for city and rural commercial banks enhance the incentive to allocate government bonds, with expectations that the cost of liabilities for these banks will drop below 1.6% in Q1 2026 [1] Group 2 - From November 20, 2025, to February 6, 2026, brokers, funds, and pension funds collectively net sold 354.8 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds, indicating a preference for mid- to short-term bonds [2] - The positive impact of rising stock markets on ultra-long-term bonds has significantly diminished, and if market expectations for stocks decline, there may be a rebound in ultra-long-term bond purchases, potentially driving the 30-year government bond yield down significantly [2] - Institutions predict that the 10-year government bond yield will break 1.80% and trend towards 1.75%, while the 30-year government bond yield may return below 2.2% [2] Group 3 - As of February 6, 2026, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds rose by 0.06%, with the corresponding ETF also increasing by 0.06% to a latest price of 116.01 yuan [4] - The liquidity of the 5-10 year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 227.23% and a transaction volume of 2.674 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [4] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, with a tracking error of 0.024% over the past three months, closely following the active bond index [4]