百利好早盘分析：就业市场放缓 降息概率略升

Group 1: Gold Market - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates one to two times to address the slowing labor market, despite balanced risks of price stability and full employment [2] - According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, there is an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.9%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 31.1%, with a 65.2% chance of maintaining rates. By June, the probability of a cumulative cut reaches 51.1% [2] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research indicates that the slowing labor market increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - Technically, gold has maintained a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop last week, with an increased probability of further upward movement. The price is expected to test resistance at $5,080 and potentially rise above $5,100 this week [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has alleviated investor concerns regarding geopolitical risks, which may weaken the support for oil prices [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected ADP figures and an increase in initial jobless claims, indicates a continuing slowdown in the labor market, raising concerns about global oil demand growth [4] - Technically, oil prices have been in a wide range of fluctuations since reaching $66.45 at the end of last month, currently entering the latter half of an adjustment phase. Key support is noted at $61.50 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a fluctuating trend after a significant drop at the end of last month, with strong support observed around the $5.55 level despite multiple breaches of the $5.64 support [7] - The upper resistance level for copper is noted at $6.05 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is in a bullish trend, accelerating upward and reaching a high of 58,569, indicating strong bullish momentum [8] - Key support for the index is observed at the 56,000 level [8]