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Core Viewpoint - The green methanol industry in China is expected to experience explosive growth, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and expanding application scenarios, with a projected demand of approximately 12 million tons by 2030, accounting for nearly 50% of the global market [1][14]. Industry Overview - Green methanol, produced from renewable energy sources such as green hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and biomass, has a near-zero carbon emission during its production process [1][8]. - As of the end of 2025, China's methanol production capacity is projected to reach 11,756 million tons per year, with green methanol capacity accounting for less than 5% [3]. - The coal chemical industry in China, which primarily produces methanol from coal, faces significant decarbonization pressures due to high carbon emissions [3][17]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" strategy in 2021, various policies have been implemented to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, including methanol [4][5]. - The government has set targets for energy efficiency and carbon reduction, aiming for over 30% of the refining and ethylene industry's capacity to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [4]. Technological Developments - The key to advancing green methanol technology lies in reducing production costs, which are currently 2-3 times higher than traditional methanol [16]. - Various production methods for green methanol include electrolysis, biomass gasification, and biomass-coupled green hydrogen processes, each with its advantages and challenges [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The global green methanol market is rapidly developing, with 255 renewable methanol projects identified, and China holds over 50% of the global project reserves [11]. - The shipping industry is increasingly adopting methanol as a mainstream alternative fuel, with significant demand projected for methanol-fueled vessels [11][13]. Future Outlook - China's green methanol projects are expected to enter a concentrated construction phase from 2026 to 2028, with large-scale production anticipated post-2028 [14]. - The demand for green methanol in China is expected to be driven primarily by shipping fuel applications, with projections indicating a growth to approximately 120 million tons by 2050 [14][15].