北美算力资本开支持续扩张，通信ETF（515880）大涨超4%

Core Insights - The expansion of capital expenditure in North America for computing power is driving growth in the sector, with the communication ETF (515880) rising over 4% and attracting nearly 3.1 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days [1][9]. Industry Trends - The investment logic in communications is becoming clearer as the global AI industry shifts from model breakthroughs to large-scale infrastructure construction, providing a stable anchor for investors amidst short-term market fluctuations [3]. - Strong capital expenditure guidance from leading tech companies indicates that AI-driven computing investments are not a bubble but a trend supported by robust profit expectations, with high growth expected to continue through 2026 [4]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Major cloud providers and tech giants are showing strong investment willingness, with Meta and Google projecting capital expenditures of 125 billion and 180 billion dollars for 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 73% and approximately 100%, significantly exceeding previous market expectations [5]. - Compared to the internet bubble period, current tech giants have healthier financials, with lower capital expenditure as a percentage of free cash flow and better net debt levels, indicating a more solid foundation for this investment cycle [5]. Light Module Market Dynamics - Light modules are critical for data transmission within data centers and are expected to benefit from the upgrade in computing power, with demand for 1.6T light modules projected to reach 20-30 million units by 2026, a tenfold increase from 2025 [6]. - The market for light modules is expanding as technology evolves, with the "light into the cabinet" trend expected to create a market space 4-5 times larger than the current external cabinet market, providing new growth opportunities for leading manufacturers [7]. Application and Ecosystem Development - The acceleration of AI applications and commercialization will create new software investment opportunities and generate continuous demand for underlying computing infrastructure, forming a positive feedback loop for industry development [8]. - The maturity of technology and cost reductions are paving the way for commercialization, with domestic large model capabilities rapidly catching up to international standards, enhancing the feasibility of business models and user willingness to pay [8]. ETF Performance and Investment Strategy - The communication ETF (515880) has over 66% of its weight in light modules and servers, making it a leading investment tool for AI computing infrastructure, with a scale exceeding 14 billion yuan [9][12]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "long-term optimistic, buy on dips" strategy, as short-term fluctuations may provide cost-effective opportunities for long-term positioning in high-growth sectors [11].