全球货币大洗牌：欧元占比25.6%，人民币连续跌破3%，什么原因？

Core Insights - The global payment market appears stable on the surface, but significant changes are occurring beneath, with the US dollar still dominant but showing signs of decline [1][3] - The euro has regained some ground, increasing its share to 25.6%, while the Chinese yuan has seen a drop below 3% in the SWIFT system, raising concerns about its internationalization [1][3][12] Group 1: Dollar Dominance - The US dollar remains the uncontested leading currency in the global payment system, holding a 46.94% share, but has decreased from nearly 50% in recent months, reflecting deeper changes [3][5] - The dollar's strength is supported by the petrodollar system, global trade settlement habits, and the attractiveness of US financial markets, but this foundation is being eroded due to the weaponization of the SWIFT system by the US [5][6] - The global economic landscape is shifting from unipolar to multipolar, with emerging markets rising and countries exploring local currency settlements or regional currency cooperation [8][24] Group 2: Euro Resilience - The euro's journey has been tumultuous, experiencing a peak of 39% in payment share in May 2021, only to drop to 21% due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [10][12] - The euro has rebounded to 25.6% by August 2025, indicating that despite geopolitical challenges, economic size and effective policy responses can lead to recovery [12][26] - The euro's resurgence is attributed to the EU's efforts in energy supply chain restructuring and enhancing financial cooperation [12][26] Group 3: Yuan's Alternative Path - The yuan's share in the SWIFT system has been below 3% for several months, but this does not indicate a slowdown in its internationalization, as it is developing its own payment channels [14][19] - China's independent cross-border payment system, CIPS, has expanded significantly, processing over 90 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 and covering 189 countries and regions [16][19] - The establishment of currency swap agreements with over 30 countries, totaling 4.5 trillion yuan, enhances the yuan's liquidity and creates pathways to bypass the dollar [19][26] Group 4: Evolving Payment Landscape - The current global payment market ranks the dollar, euro, and pound as the top three currencies, with the yuan in sixth place, but the real change lies in the diversification of settlement paths [21][24] - The US's use of SWIFT as a tool has prompted other countries to seek independent payment systems, with regions like India and ASEAN exploring local currency settlement mechanisms [23][24] - The emergence of multiple payment systems enhances resilience and provides new opportunities for emerging currencies, indicating that future currency status will depend on convenience, stability, and openness of settlement channels [24][30]