Ge Long Hui·2026-02-09 04:11Core Insights - The demand for space photovoltaics is expected to experience exponential growth, driven by investments from companies like Tesla and SpaceX in photovoltaic manufacturing to support orbital computing and AI [1] - Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers are well-positioned to enter the supply chains of major players like Tesla and SpaceX, potentially securing substantial orders and opening new growth opportunities [1] - Space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit significant inflationary effects, leading to a substantial increase in value [1] Domestic Market Projections - By 2026, the annual satellite launch count in China is projected to reach 1,000, increasing to 3,000 by 2030 under conservative estimates and potentially 6,000 under optimistic scenarios, with a long-term goal of 500,000 [2] - The demand for satellite solar wing batteries in China is expected to grow from 0.01 GW in 2026 to 0.12 GW by 2030 under optimistic conditions, with a long-term target of 150 GW [2] - The penetration rates for P-HJT and perovskite batteries are anticipated to reach 20% by 2030, with long-term goals of 65% and 35% respectively [2] Overseas Market Projections - The annual satellite launch count overseas, primarily driven by SpaceX, is expected to rise from 5,000 in 2026 to 15,000 by 2030, with an ultimate target of 20 million [2] - The demand for overseas satellite solar wing batteries is projected to increase from 0.1 GW in 2026 to 72 GW by 2030 under optimistic estimates, with a long-term goal of 1,000 GW [2] - The penetration rate for P-HJT batteries is expected to reach 85% by 2030, with a long-term target of 65% [2] Global Market Projections - The total demand for space photovoltaics globally is projected to grow from 0.1 GW in 2026 to 72 GW by 2030 under optimistic conditions, with a long-term target of 1,150 GW [2] - The market space for space photovoltaics is expected to expand significantly, from 121 billion yuan in 2026 to 29,179 billion yuan by 2030 under optimistic estimates, with a long-term goal of 173,783 billion yuan [2] - The price of P-HJT batteries is expected to decrease from 70 yuan/W in 2026 to 15 yuan/W in the long term, indicating a trend towards cost reduction in the industry [2]