专家说出实话：房子明明已经过剩，开发商为何还在建房？太现实

Group 1 - The core issue is the contradiction between housing oversupply and ongoing construction by developers, raising questions about the motivations behind this behavior [1][3] - National urban housing vacancy rates are around 20%, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 30%, indicating a significant oversupply situation [5][10] - The inventory turnover period for new homes in some cities exceeds 22 months, with many third and fourth-tier cities taking over 30 months to sell existing stock [8][10] Group 2 - Developers continue to build in areas where demand still exists, as the real estate market is fragmented, with first-tier cities experiencing low vacancy rates and strong demand in certain districts [15][17] - Local governments rely heavily on land sales for revenue, with some cities deriving over 20% of their income from land transfer fees, creating pressure to continue land sales [18][20] - Developers are trapped in a "high leverage + high turnover" model, making it difficult to halt construction without risking tighter financing and cash flow issues [23][29] Group 3 - Despite overall oversupply, there remains structural demand for housing, particularly in urban areas where many individuals still need better housing options [31][34] - Urbanization in China is still below developed countries, indicating potential for continued population influx into major cities, sustaining demand for new housing in certain areas [34][36] - The market is shifting towards a more cautious approach from buyers, who are increasingly prioritizing existing homes and prime locations, while policies are tightening to control new land supply [38][42] Group 4 - The transition from aggressive construction to a more measured approach is underway, emphasizing quality and demand-driven development rather than sheer volume [44]