TMGM官网：美元指数连续回落 市场审慎静待政策线索

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index continues to decline, reaching approximately 97.5, marking its second consecutive day of decrease as traders await key economic data releases to adjust their trading strategies [1]. Economic Data Impact - Multiple delayed key economic data will be released this week, significantly influencing the dollar index and market sentiment [3]. - The January employment report, a core indicator of the US labor market, is expected on Wednesday, with cautious market expectations due to recent signs of labor market slowdown [3]. - December retail sales data will also be released on Wednesday, reflecting consumer willingness and ability, which is crucial for understanding the pace of US economic recovery [3]. - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Friday, serving as a key measure of US inflation and impacting future Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are relatively clear, with a high probability of maintaining stable rates in March [4]. - There is a general expectation that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in June or September, closely tied to the performance of upcoming key economic data [4]. - Recent improvements in market risk sentiment have also pressured the dollar index, as funds shift from dollar assets to rebounding assets like tech stocks and precious metals [4]. Market Sentiment and External Factors - The recent election in Japan, where Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling coalition received stable support, has limited direct impact on the global forex market and the dollar index [4]. - Market attention remains focused on the upcoming key economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, overshadowing other external factors [4].