广发宏观：美元走势将是全球资产定价环境的关键线索

Group 1 - The global macroeconomic landscape in 2025 is characterized by five main features: stable growth rate, economic divergence among regions, differentiated inflation and monetary policies, tariff-induced disruptions, and rising expectations in the AI industry [1][10] - The IMF projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, with the US growth rate declining from 2.8% to 2.0%, while emerging markets maintain a resilient growth rate of 4.2% [10][11] - The AI capital expenditure is entering a super cycle, with major cloud providers collectively investing approximately $370 billion, indicating a significant increase in capital spending [12] Group 2 - The pricing of global assets is influenced by a stable growth environment and loose fiscal and monetary policies, leading to opportunities in risk assets such as commodities and stocks [2][13] - The decline in the US dollar due to interest rate cuts and rising credit risk premiums is a key factor in asset pricing, with emerging markets showing relative resilience and attractive returns [2][14] - The narrative surrounding AI and the restructuring of global supply chains is expected to create strong demand in sectors like non-ferrous metals [2][14] Group 3 - The US economy is expected to experience a "strong then stable" trajectory in 2026, with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.4%, slightly above market expectations [5][24] - Corporate fixed investment is anticipated to grow by about 5%, driven by the OBBBA Act's impact on capital costs and ongoing AI infrastructure investments [5][26] - The labor market is a significant uncertainty for 2026, with the unemployment rate expected to stabilize around 4.4%, but potential upward pressure from AI replacement effects [5][27] Group 4 - The nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair signals a potential systemic shift in US macroeconomic policy, focusing on regulatory reforms to enhance private sector credit expansion [6][29][31] - The new framework aims to achieve a balance between Fed balance sheet reduction and credit easing, which could lead to a decline in the Fed's balance sheet relative to GDP without triggering a liquidity crisis [6][33] Group 5 - Non-US economies are expected to show relative advantages in 2026, with Japan's GDP growth projected at 0.6% and the Eurozone at 1.3%, supported by fiscal expansion and weak recovery [7][34] - Emerging markets may experience moderate growth slowdown, with Asia benefiting from technology cycles while Latin America faces fiscal constraints [7][36] Group 6 - Geopolitical dynamics in 2026 will be influenced by the US's "transactional diplomacy," with significant developments in regions like Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East [8][38] - The US's approach to Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will be critical in shaping geopolitical risk and market responses [8][39] Group 7 - The US dollar's trajectory will be a key factor in the global asset pricing environment, with expectations of increased volatility in 2026 as the interest rate cycle ends [9][41] - The complexity of pricing for global narrative-related assets, such as precious metals and the AI industry, is expected to rise, necessitating a cautious adjustment of return expectations [9][41]