招商宏观：春节海外机会更多，还是风险更大？

Domestic Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI are showing divergence, with January CPI expected to be 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month but decrease by 1.2% year-on-year [1][10] - January credit growth may not meet last year's levels, with notable increases in bill rates compared to the previous year and a bank acceptance ratio of approximately 72%, higher than last year's 67.2%, indicating weaker credit issuance [10] Overseas Economic Developments - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman may face procedural delays due to a request from Senate Democrats and a Republican to postpone the nomination until investigations into current Chairman Powell and other board members conclude [3][13] - Polls suggest that the Liberal Democratic Party may secure over 233 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, potentially allowing them to escape the constraints of coalition governance [3][13] Asset Market Insights - Global liquidity may benefit from Japan's potential escape from coalition governance, which opposes early interest rate hikes and advocates for a weaker yen, thus supporting global liquidity [4][11] - Domestic technology sectors should monitor U.S. stock trends, with limited risks but potential opportunities in Q2; PPI may turn positive earlier in Q2, benefiting sectors like electricity, construction materials, steel, new energy, and chemicals [4][11] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has implemented a "shorten and lengthen" strategy in liquidity management, with a net withdrawal of 7-day liquidity while injecting 14-day and 3-month liquidity, indicating a protective stance on liquidity [5][12] - Average funding prices have decreased by 5-10 basis points across various instruments, reflecting a downward trend in liquidity costs [5][15] Government Debt and Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 579.37 billion yuan, while national debt net financing was 212 billion yuan, totaling 791.37 billion yuan for the week [7][16] - Upcoming issuance plans include 322.14 billion yuan in local government bonds and 130 billion yuan in national bonds, with net financing expectations of 320.05 billion yuan and a negative net financing of 249.89 billion yuan for national bonds [7][16]