软件股溢价已跌至金融危机以来新低，高盛：别急，还没跌透！

Core Viewpoint - The global software and IT services sector is undergoing a significant revaluation, with software stocks experiencing a notable decline in relative valuation compared to the broader market, reflecting aggressive market responses to AI disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that the valuation premium of software stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis, suggesting a market reaction to the "AI impact" [1]. - The European software sector has seen a decline of approximately 16% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the broader European market, which is supported by financial, resource, utility, and industrial sectors [2]. - The rapid evolution of AI automation tools has led to a systematic reassessment of business models reliant on software and data services, resulting in double-digit declines across various sectors including software and gaming [2]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - Current forward P/E ratio for European software and IT services companies is around 16.8 times, with only a 9% premium over the broader market, nearing the lows seen during the 2009 financial crisis [3]. - The broader digital economy sector's forward P/E has compressed from 18.7 times at the beginning of 2025 to 13.7 times, placing it at the lower end of the valuation range observed over the past two decades [3]. - The implied revenue growth assumption for software stocks is currently only 4%-5%, aligning with nominal GDP growth, while analysts maintain a long-term revenue growth expectation of nearly 9% for the software industry [3]. Group 3: Profitability Concerns - The primary concern in the market is not immediate profit collapse but the long-term sustainability of profit margins in the software sector [4]. - Historical data shows that net profit margins in the software and IT services industry have risen significantly, reaching about twice the average of non-financial sectors in Europe, raising concerns about vulnerability to disruption [4]. - The software industry has transitioned from a deflationary force to a source of moderate inflation, making it more susceptible to structural shocks [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns indicate that stock price recoveries typically occur after earnings expectations have bottomed out, rather than prior to valuation declines [6]. - The current adjustment in software stocks is viewed as an early pricing of future risks rather than a complete market clearing process [6]. - Despite a cautious outlook for the software sector, there remains long-term investment value in technology stocks, particularly those with strong competitive advantages and pricing power [6].