华源证券：维持百胜中国“增持”评级 股东回报源远流长

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities projects Yum China (09987) to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of $10.71 billion, $11.56 billion, and $12.42 billion for the years 2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 8% respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 19, 17, and 16 times at the current stock price, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating due to the company's stable operating conditions and clear store opening guidance [1] Group 1 - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $28.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.4 billion, up 24% year-on-year [2] - The operating profit margin and net profit margin for Q4 were 6.6% and 5.0%, reflecting increases of 0.8 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of $118.0 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $9.3 billion, up 2% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Same-store sales grew by 3% in Q4 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive growth [3] - KFC's same-store sales increased by 3%, with same-store transaction volume also up by 3%, while average transaction value remained flat compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - Pizza Hut's same-store sales rose by 1%, with same-store transaction volume increasing by 13%, aligning with the company's mass market strategy [3] Group 3 - The company aims to exceed 30,000 stores by 2030, having reached a total of 18,101 stores by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores for the year [4] - In Q4 2025, the company added 587 new stores, accelerating the pace of openings in the second half of the year [4] - The company is implementing a flexible store model and franchise layout, including the "shoulder-to-shoulder" model to facilitate rapid expansion, with plans for 2,200 KFC coffee locations by 2025 and Kpro entering hundreds of KFC stores [4] Group 4 - The company plans to complete $1.5 billion in dividends and buybacks in 2026, with average annual shareholder returns of approximately $900 million to over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [4] - Starting in 2027, the company intends to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders, after deducting dividends paid to minority shareholders, with expected annual shareholder returns of around $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027 and 2028 [4] - Assuming annual shareholder returns of $900 million in 2027 and 2028, this amount may represent 5% of the company's market value as of February 3, 2026 [4]