还未上任便遭反击！经济学家怒批沃什“AI降息论”站不住脚

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump to replace Powell, argues that AI will lead to unprecedented productivity gains, allowing the Fed to lower interest rates without triggering inflation [2][3] - A survey of 45 economists indicates that nearly 60% believe AI's impact on prices and borrowing costs will be minimal over the next two years, with expected declines in PCE inflation and neutral rates of less than 0.2 percentage points [2] - Approximately one-third of respondents suggest that the AI boom could even lead the Fed to slightly raise the neutral rate, which is the level where borrowing costs neither stimulate nor dampen demand [2] Group 2 - Warsh must be confirmed by the Senate to take over in mid-May, focusing on AI's impact on productivity, while other economists believe the technology may increase demand and price pressures [3] - The FOMC predicts only one rate cut this year, by 25 basis points, keeping the benchmark rate above 3.25%, significantly higher than the 1% rate suggested by Trump [4] - Warsh's call to reduce the Fed's "bloated" balance sheet may face opposition from other rate setters, as aggressive balance sheet reduction could raise long-term borrowing costs and affect mortgage rates [4] Group 3 - Warsh's dovish stance on short-term rates contrasts with his hawkish position on the balance sheet, raising questions about his leadership of the Fed [5] - Most respondents do not support the Trump administration's goal of relaxing banking regulations, with over 60% indicating that it would have little short-term growth impact but significantly increase the risk of a financial crisis [5]