贝森特：美联储可能不会迅速缩表

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, suggesting a cautious and wait-and-see approach to monetary policy management [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Path and Timeline - Bessent emphasized that the new Fed Chair nominee, Waller, will operate independently, and no rapid actions should be expected regarding the balance sheet [2]. - He projected that the Fed might take at least a year to assess and plan its future path, providing investors with a longer buffer period to evaluate the liquidity environment [2]. Group 2: Evolution of the Fed's Balance Sheet - Historically, the Fed's balance sheet expanded significantly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 [3]. - The Fed initiated a quantitative tightening process, allowing its assets to mature without reinvestment, which is expected to reduce the balance sheet to $6.6 trillion by the end of 2025 [3]. - Recently, the Fed began purchasing Treasury securities to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system, indicating that maintaining liquidity stability is a key consideration in its current operations [3]. Group 3: Nominee's Stance and Policy Goals - The market is focused on the policy inclinations of Fed Chair nominee Waller, who previously argued for significant reductions in the Fed's asset holdings [4]. - However, this hawkish stance faces challenges, as President Trump has expressed a desire for significantly lower mortgage rates, which could be hindered by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [4]. - Bessent's comments suggest that even with Waller's appointment, aggressive balance sheet reduction plans may yield to more prudent strategies due to multiple policy objectives and real-world constraints [4].