Counterpoint：内存价格较2025年第四季度飙升高达90%

Group 1 - Memory prices are expected to rise by 80%-90% quarter-on-quarter by Q1 2026, driven primarily by a significant increase in general server DRAM prices [1] - The contract price for 64GB RDIMM has surged from $450 in Q4 to over $900 in Q1, with expectations to exceed $1,000 in Q2 [1] - NAND flash memory, which had a relatively stable performance in Q4, also saw a similar increase of 80%-90% in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Device manufacturers face a dual challenge of rising component costs and weakened consumer purchasing power, leading to a potential slowdown in demand [3] - Smartphone manufacturers are reducing DRAM capacity or opting for more cost-effective QLC solutions instead of TLC SSDs, while LPDDR4 orders are declining due to supply tightness [3] - The memory industry is projected to reach unprecedented profit levels, with DRAM operating profit margins expected to hit the 60% range by Q4 2025, marking the first time general DRAM margins exceed HBM [3]