专访摩根大通刘鸣镝：反内卷催生上行行情，流动性追随可持续业绩

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical turning point entering 2026, transitioning from a valuation recovery phase to a profit-driven new cycle, supported by policy efforts, improved corporate earnings expectations, and increased household savings entering the market [1] Market Outlook - If the "anti-involution" measures yield substantial results, a "slow bull" market is expected in 2026, driven by continuous improvement in corporate profitability, which will support sustainable asset returns and valuations [1] - The target for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, with a core logic based on expected earnings growth of 15% year-on-year [3] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include real estate, materials, and information technology (IT). A stronger stabilization signal in real estate, particularly in first-tier cities, could surprise the market positively [2][3] - The materials sector is closely tied to global macroeconomic trends, with a focus on precious metals outside the dollar and important metals related to new energy [4] - The IT sector is viewed with caution due to high current valuations and elevated expectations for Q4 2025, suggesting a need for a correction before new investment opportunities arise [5] Profitability and Investment Strategy - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to create long-term opportunities, particularly in the solar and battery sectors, as companies focus on core business quality and stable pricing [6] - The current profit margins in the Chinese market are the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region, with potential for significant returns if industry concentration improves [7] Consumer Sector Insights - The upcoming Chinese New Year is seen as an important window for observing consumer trends, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the food and beverage sector, which is expected to benefit from a shift towards healthier food options [7][8] Foreign Capital Flow - The return of foreign capital is expected to be gradual and structurally differentiated, with passive funds actively participating while active funds remain underweight in China [9] - The low allocation of international funds, particularly those excluding the U.S., is expected to correct as they gain a better understanding of Chinese assets through their experience with similar sectors in the U.S. [9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform well in 2026, with a target for the MSCI China index set at 100, indicating significant upside potential [10][11] - The average earnings revision for Hong Kong stocks since May 2025 has approached 40%, marking the best performance since 2020 [11]