分析人士：节后“春季躁动”行情大概率延续

Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility, with major indices showing significant pullbacks and a subtle change in market sentiment [1] - The market exhibited a "strong first half, followed by fluctuations" characteristic in early 2026, driven by policy expectations and economic recovery [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4100 points, with active rotations in sectors like non-ferrous metals and technology [1] Factors Influencing Market Trends - The market's performance in January typically sees adjustments, but this year has been contrary due to two main reasons: the resonance of loose monetary and fiscal policies between China and the US, and the strong expectations for domestic economic stabilization [1] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has introduced potential pressure on long-term liquidity, with implications for risk assets [3] Sector Analysis - Analysts have noted overheating in various sectors, including commercial aerospace and precious metals, primarily driven by liquidity influx [2] - The lack of a pricing anchor has contributed to the recent downturn in the stock market following a significant drop in precious metal prices [2] Policy Implications - Walsh's proposed "tapering and rate cuts" policy may create conflicts, but the market is more focused on the tapering aspect, leading to corrections in precious metal prices [4] - The A-share market's pricing is more influenced by domestic liquidity changes rather than US dollar liquidity, although declines in overseas asset prices can impact related A-share sectors [4] Investment Strategies - The foundation for the "spring rally" is supported by fundamental factors such as liquidity expansion and economic recovery, which are expected to improve corporate earnings [5] - Caution is advised regarding high valuations in growth styles, which may have overextended policy expectations, while cyclical styles may benefit from a recovery in manufacturing and supply-demand improvements [5] - Traders are encouraged to focus on undervalued assets and to adopt a long-term investment perspective while managing short-term market fluctuations [5]