硬资产轮动！高盛：这轮商品上涨更像“资产配置冲击”，不再是单纯的供需故事

Group 1 - The core driver of the current commodity market is shifting from "supply-demand balance" to "asset allocation impact" [1][18] - Investors are reallocating funds from "soft assets" like bonds and equities to "hard assets" such as commodities due to concerns over macroeconomic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and long-term inflation anxiety [2][19] - This shift in asset allocation is expected to lead to commodity prices remaining elevated beyond what physical fundamentals can justify [12][28] Group 2 - The commodity market is relatively small compared to equity and bond markets, making it susceptible to price impacts from even moderate inflows of asset allocation funds [3][20] - Active investors, such as hedge funds and trading funds, are primarily responsible for driving price changes through their position adjustments [4][21] - Financial flows exceeding industrial hedging and physical flows will likely lead to price increases in the short term [5][22] Group 3 - Precious metals and copper are seen as the primary beneficiaries of the current "hard asset rotation," while energy commodities are viewed as only temporarily benefiting [6][23] - Structural differences, such as market size, supply response speed, and storage characteristics, favor metals over energy in the context of asset allocation [7][24] - Metals are considered easier to hold and more resilient in the current asset allocation framework [9][25] Group 4 - Gold is identified as the most direct and least supply-constrained hard asset for allocation, with a price forecast of $5,400 per ounce by December 2026 [10][26] - The potential for increased allocation to gold in U.S. financial portfolios suggests significant upward price pressure, as a 1 basis point increase in allocation could raise gold prices by approximately 1.5% [10][26] - Current copper prices are above fair value based on inventory and demand, with a forecasted decline to $11,200 per ton by Q4 2026, although upward risks remain if asset rotation continues [11][27] Group 5 - The phenomenon of prices remaining elevated due to asset allocation-driven hard asset rotation may become a new norm [12][28] - The current copper market reflects this trend, while precious metals are expected to be the next major beneficiaries [13][29] - Understanding the current commodity market solely through supply and demand may underestimate the influence of financial capital on pricing [14][30] - The fundamental change in the commodity market is driven by a deep shift in global asset allocation [15][31]