Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-09 08:01Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the battery sales forecast for CATL (300750)(03750) for the next two years by 5% to 7%, estimating sales between 829 to 1,044 GWh, and has also increased net profit forecasts by 5% to 7%, maintaining the 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, raising the target price from HKD 640 to HKD 660, with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - UBS's 2026 battery teardown report includes CATL's Shenxing supercharging battery and Kirin battery, revealing the company's cost competitiveness in both domestic and overseas production [1] - The estimated cost of similar batteries produced in Hungary is projected to be USD 10 to 15 per kWh higher than those produced in China, but the operating profit margin of the Hungarian factory is expected to be similar to that of domestic factories [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from multiple growth opportunities due to its global leadership in cost, scale, and technology, particularly in the acceleration of electrification in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and new application fields [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the cost curve of CATL's Hungarian factory will be lower than that of Germany, with operating profit margins expected to remain consistent with domestic operations, driven by European market premiums, highly automated production, and only moderate increases in labor costs [1] - With a leading and continuously growing global market share, the company is expected to benefit from deeper penetration of electric vehicles, accelerated electrification of commercial vehicles, and expansion into energy storage systems, data centers, and robotics applications [1] - The forecast for the company's revenue and profit compound annual growth rates from 2024 to 2029 is 20% and 25%, respectively [1]