长城投研速递：震荡区间下限或逐步探明

Policy Direction - Local economic growth targets are being adjusted downwards, with 15 provinces lowering their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, while 12 provinces maintain their targets from last year [2] - Major provinces like Guangdong, Henan, and Zhejiang have set their GDP growth targets at approximately 0.5 percentage points lower, while Jiangsu and Sichuan have not made adjustments [2] - Shanghai aims to cultivate 20 new integrated service consumption scenarios and plans to complete major project investments of 255 billion yuan [2] Domestic Macro - The new economic growth center is expected to rise in Q4 2025, with signs of expansion from AI to overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption [3] - The emerging technology industry is showing strong supply and demand characteristics, with an increase in internal price hikes across various segments [3] Foreign Macro - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady in January aligns with market expectations, with a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, adding uncertainty to future rate cuts [4] Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing increased divergence, making it difficult to establish a clear trend [10] - The People's Bank of China has resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting liquidity into the market, which has led to a significant decline in funding costs [7] - The overall bond market sentiment is improving, with credit bonds showing a general decline in yields, although credit spreads are widening [8][10] Equity Market - The market saw a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.11%, while value stocks performed relatively well [11] - The food and beverage, banking, and building materials sectors continued to rise, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics faced declines [18] Investment Strategy - Focus on domestic demand value and emerging technology sectors, as the domestic demand sector is expected to outperform post-Spring Festival [19] - Emphasis on sectors such as food, retail, tourism, and hotel services, as well as opportunities in oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals due to low valuations [20] - Emerging technology is seen as a key competitive area, with attention on internet, media, computing, robotics, and military sectors, as well as overseas manufacturing [20]