贝森特重磅表态，事关美联储缩表

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, even with the nomination of Walsh, who previously criticized the Fed's bond-buying program [2][3] Group 1: Policy Path and Timeline - Bessent emphasized that the Fed's decisions regarding its balance sheet will be made independently, and no rapid actions should be expected [3] - He suggested that if the Fed adopts a "plentiful reserves" policy, it would structurally require maintaining a larger balance sheet [3] - The proposed timeline of "at least a year" for the Fed to assess its future path provides investors with a longer buffer to evaluate the liquidity environment [3] Group 2: Evolution of the Fed's Balance Sheet - Historically, the Fed's balance sheet expanded significantly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 [4] - The Fed initiated a quantitative tightening process, allowing its assets to mature without reinvestment, reducing the balance sheet to an expected $6.6 trillion by the end of 2025 [4] Group 3: Recent Actions and Liquidity Considerations - In December of the previous year, the Fed began increasing its bond holdings again through technical operations to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system [5] - This recent action highlights that maintaining stable liquidity has become a crucial consideration for the Fed's current operations [5] Group 4: Balancing Nominee's Stance and Policy Goals - The focus on Walsh's policy inclination is significant, as he previously argued for a substantial reduction in the Fed's asset holdings [6] - However, this hawkish stance faces challenges, as President Trump has expressed a desire for significantly lower mortgage rates, which would be hindered by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [6] - Bessent's comments suggest that even with Walsh's appointment, aggressive balance sheet reduction may yield to a more cautious strategy due to multiple policy objectives and real-world constraints [6]