花旗：上调中银航空租赁(02588)目标价至98.5港元 微升盈测

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast for Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588), raising the target price from HKD 80 to HKD 98.5, reflecting higher profit expectations and accounting for the implied equity from fleet valuation premium, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Management anticipates a 20% year-on-year growth in core net profit for the first half of 2025, with continued strong growth expected in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company reaffirms a 35% annual dividend payout policy and, due to its low leverage, has the potential to further increase dividends [1] - The net leasing yield is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025, while the profit margin from aircraft sales is projected to improve compared to the first half [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Valuation - Strong market demand for aircraft supports the company's implied equity, with the fleet valuation exceeding the book value of the aircraft by 15% as of the end of the first half of 2025 [1] - Capital expenditures for the fiscal year 2025 are expected to reach the previously targeted USD 4 billion, with plans to further increase capital expenditures in fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - Citigroup has raised the earnings estimates for Bank of China Aviation Leasing for the years 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 2%, and 3% respectively, resulting in projected earnings of USD 754 million, USD 841 million, and USD 907 million, primarily reflecting the upward adjustment in aircraft disposal profit forecasts [1]